Correlation and lag effects between spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage and ambient temperature in Nanchong city

doi:10.3877/cma.j.issn.2095-9141.2020.04.003

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective

To analyze the correlation and lag relationship between spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) and temperature in Nanchong City.

Methods

The data of clinical information at grade-C secondary or above hospitals and air temperature were collected retrospectively from January 2014 to December 2018 in Nanchong city. Spearman rank correlation method was used to determine the optimal temperature index, and a distribution lag non-linear model was established to evaluate the exposure response relationship between the temperature and the daily risk of sICH, and analyze the lag response relationship of temperature nodes in gender and age groups.

Results

A total of 13 952 patients with sICH were collected. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that the daily incidence of sICH was negatively correlated with daily average temperature (r=-0.324, P<0.05). The results of the distributed lag nonlinear model analysis showed that the relative risks of sICH on the day of extremely low temperature and low temperature was 1.68 (1.35-2.08) and 1.47 (1.24-1.72), and the hazard effect was the largest, which weakened with the increase of lag days. The extremely low temperature lags for 1-2 d, and low temperature lags 1-10 d. The harmful effects in the younger group (18-60 years old) at extremely low temperature and low temperature lag for 2 d, while the harmful effects in the elderly group (> 60 years old) at extremely low temperature and low temperature lag to 10 d and 24 d, respectively. The lag effect trend of different gender groups in extremely low temperature and low temperature was consistent, and the risk decreased with the increase of lag days.

Conclusion

Low temperature increases the risk of sICH. It has obvious acute effect in the early stage and has lag effect. The elderly people’s response to hypothermia is more delayed.

Key words: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage, Distributed lag non-linear models, Average daily temperature, Morbidity

Hui Tang, Yong Chen, Chuan Shao, Xiaoquan Luo, Xiaoya Wang, Chenggong Zou, Guohong Wen, Jiaquan He. Correlation and lag effects between spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage and ambient temperature in Nanchong city[J]. Chinese Journal of Neurotraumatic Surgery(Electronic Edition), 2020, 06(04): 202-207.

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References 17

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温度指标	平均温度	温度范围	P₁	P₁₀	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅	P₉₀	P₉₉
日均气温	18.2±7.8	0.8~35.7	3.8	7.8	10.9	18.4	24.3	28.6	33.2
最低气温	15.4±7.3	-2.8~31.3	1.3	5.5	9.2	15.7	21.4	24.7	28.7
最高气温	21.8±8.7	2.9~40.6	5.9	10.2	14.1	22.1	28.6	33.7	38.2
当日温差	6.3±3.3	0.4~15.5	1.1	2.1	3.4	6.0	9.0	10.9	14.0
日间温差	0.0±1.7	-8.6~6.9	-5.4	-2.2	-0.8	0.2	1.1	1.9	3.1

温度指标	平均温度	温度范围	P₁	P₁₀	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅	P₉₀	P₉₉
日均气温	18.2±7.8	0.8~35.7	3.8	7.8	10.9	18.4	24.3	28.6	33.2
最低气温	15.4±7.3	-2.8~31.3	1.3	5.5	9.2	15.7	21.4	24.7	28.7
最高气温	21.8±8.7	2.9~40.6	5.9	10.2	14.1	22.1	28.6	33.7	38.2
当日温差	6.3±3.3	0.4~15.5	1.1	2.1	3.4	6.0	9.0	10.9	14.0
日间温差	0.0±1.7	-8.6~6.9	-5.4	-2.2	-0.8	0.2	1.1	1.9	3.1

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